U.S. - South Korea War Simulation Turns Really Ugly: US looks
over its shoulder at North Korea
F.T. Times, FT.com
March 27, 2003
It was defeat on a scale not experienced by the US military since
the Vietnam war.
One by one, the UStanks streaming down the wooded hillside were
struck by enemy fire from the valley below until nearly all 50 were
eliminated.
"That was ugly," said a US commander watching the debacle from a
safe distance, as smoke billowed across the muddy
battlefield.
Fortunately for the US, the location was not Iraq and it was not
real conflict. Instead, it was a training exercise yesterday
morning in the mountains of South Korea, where the US keeps 37,000
troops to defend the country against the communist North.
On this occasion, the enemy was South Korean forces, using laser
beams to simulate live fire. But, if war breaks out between the US
and North Korea, as some think it might, yesterday's grisly game
would be for real.
Many in north-east Asia fear that once Iraq is dealt with, North
Korea, a fellow member of US President George W. Bush's "axis of
evil", could be the next target of Washington's drive against rogue
states seeking weapons of mass destruction.
Washington insists it has no plans to invade North Korea but
refuses to rule out air strikes against the state's nuclear
facilities if Pyongyang starts to produce plutonium for use in
nuclear weapons.
However, yesterday's drill - part of an annual exercise to test the
readiness of US and South Korean forces - brought a reminder that
war in Korea would be a more serious undertaking than the campaign
under way in Iraq.
"Unlike Iraq, this is very complex, mountainous terrain," said Jim
Coggin, brigadier general of the US second infantry division,
involved in yesterday's exercise. "Precision munitions fired from
high altitude or long distance would be less effective in Korea
than Iraq. War here would be up close and personal and very
brutal."
According to US estimates, 50,000 US servicemen and 1m South
Koreans, mostly civilians, would die in the first month of
conflict. The North's 1m-strong army would engage in bloody
hand-to-hand combat, while its thousands of artillery systems and
tanks would rain fire, including chemical weapons, across the
border. In addition to human costs, the South Korean economy,
Asia's third-largest, would be thrown into chaos.
For these reasons and others - including almost certain opposition
to war from Seoul, Tokyo and Beijing - most analysts think a
pre-emptive US strike against North Korea is unlikely.
North Korea has escalated tensions on the peninsula in recent
months with a series of provocative military gestures, calculating
that the US is even less likely to attack while preoccupied with
Iraq. Analysts say Pyongyang's threatening behaviour is designed to
extract the security guarantees and economic assistance it needs
from the US to preserve its crumbling regime.
Washington has resisted North Korea's demands, insisting it will
not submit to "blackmail", but the US administration is divided
over how to resolve the crisis. Hawkish officials favour a hardline
approach, such as economic sanctions or military action, while more
dovish elements would prefer to negotiate. "The Bush administration
is in a state of paralysis over North Korea," said one former US
government official.
Yoon Young-kwan, South Korea's foreign minister, travelled to
Washington yesterday for talks aimed at breaking the deadlock and
narrowing policy differences between the US and South Korea, which
advocates dialogue with the North.
Maurice Strong, the United Nations envoy to North Korea, warned
earlier this week that the longer the stand-off between Pyongyang
and Washington continued, the greater the chance that the crisis
could spiral out of control.
Dan Bolger, a US army colonel observing yesterday's exercise 20km
south of the border with North Korea, gave a frank assessment of
the risk. "There's been fighting before, right here where we're
standing, and there could be fighting here again," he said. "The
message to North Korea is: 'If you want to test us, we're
ready'.
"America has shown in Iraq it has the will to back up its words
with action. They cannot assume we will not do anything."
However, US troops involved in yesterday morning's ill-fated
exercise are unlikely to relish conflict. They repeated the drill
in the afternoon to rectify their mistakes.
In war, there would be no second chance
