I want to reply first to whether Singapore can win a war.
I say YES to a large extent.
There are several advantages in Singapore's favour.
Singapore is able to field a 300,000 strong defence force within
six hours, supposing our NSman turn up. Its technology, which
includes many force multipliers such as air-to-air refueling
aircraft and early airborne warning aircraft, will enable to have
an edge over its potential aggressor. Singapore currently has the
most effective force in South-east Asia. However, there are certain
points to be considered, especially in the event of war with
Malaysia, our closest and not-so-very-friendly neighbour. They have
18 Atos II MLRS while Singapore does not have any MLRS. They also
have 8 F/A-18 fighter/attack planes. These may severly damage, if
not cripple the army later if not taken out by the airforce fast.
Also, Malaysia is able to turn what is usually a tactical weapon,
artillery, into a tactical weapon simply by placing it at the
southern most tip of Johore, where it will be able to strike at
virtually the whole of Singapore.
By missile attack, I assume ICBMs, SLBMs and other ballistic
missiles. While it is true that Singapore does not have the ability
to defend against such weapons, it is improbable and highly
unlikely that such an attack will be made against Singapore in the
forseeable future. This is for the simple fact that no country in
the region possess any ballistic missiles. The closest owners of
such weapons would most likely be India and China.
Another important point is the morale of the people of Singapore.
Many posts on this forum think or even 'know' that SIngapore will
not survive any attack. This only goes to show the fragility of
many Singaporeans' state of mind. Not having the confidence of the
people in the SAF, rather than the effectiveness of its force,
should be Singapore's biggest fear in the event of an attack. This
is bause there is a physical cure to improve the effectiveness or
'potency' of SAF, but none for the psychological state of mind of
its people. To attempt to build up the confidence of the people in
the SAF, the SIngapore government in 2000 paraded many pieces of
military hardware. However, the comments of many people in this
post have clearly shown that the government has failed. How many of
the 350,000 NSmen will turn up to defend SIngapore, none of us will
know. Hopefully, the negative posts here will not reflect the
number of NSmen who turn up.
Singapore would certainly have to launch an attack and not solely
defend in any war. This is because Singapore does not have any
hinterland to fall back on and give up some land to the enemy
hoping it can regroup and later launch an attack to take its land
back. Proof that this is included in planning for defence includes
the large number of A-4SU aircraft which, like the 'A' in their
name suggests, are generally for attacking of land targets. In the
event SIngapore faces off with with Malaysia, it will most
certainly capture up to a certain part of Johore. This is because
Singapore has to ensure its supply of water first (until NEwater
comes out). Also, Johore's large population of Chinese in
comparison with the numbers of its Malays mean that there will be
less change in its racial balance.
A point in relative to war with Malaysia and Indonesia would be the
loyalty of the Malays in the SAF. Would Singapore's Malays be
willing to fight against Malays of other countries to defend their
own homeland? This has become less of an issue lately as seen by
the number of Malays who stood on the side of SIngapore when facing
critisicms from Malaysia and Indonesia. Some Malays have also
become pilots and others have been trusted with many high-tech and
often vital hardware of the SAF. This clearly shows a very positive
change of attitude toward Malays in Singapore.
SIngapore also has many defence links with other countries. For
example, Singapore enjoys a close defence relationship with Brunei,
which also shares its borders with Malaysia. Thus, Malaysia also
faces the possibility of having to wage war on 2 fronts if it
invades other Singapore or Brunei and the other comes to the aid of
the ocuntry being attack. Malaysia is certainly not capable of
having such a war given its current capabilities.
While many may argue, correctly, that Indonesia's large population
may prove decisive in any war it wages with SIngapore, Indonesia's
armed forces do not enjoy the same standards of training and
technology as the SAF. It was also crippled by civil and political
unrest which has only began to subside recently.
This is not a complete list of Singapore's advantages and
disadvantages but it should be sufficient for us to believe that
Singapore capable of defending itself against any aggressor, but
only if we are willing to do it and have the confidence in the
SAF.
