In view of disruption in train services, I feel that bus
services should provide the same capacity as train services, at
least at bus stops next to MRT stations.
On the MRT North-South, East-West and North-East lines, each train
has the capacity for 1,920 people. During peak hours, the frequency
is up to 2 minutes; there are up to 30 trips per hour. The total
capacity is 57,600 people per hour during peak hours.
A double decker bus has the capacity for around 130 people. For bus
services to provide the same capacity as train services, there has
to be a total of 443 Double-Decker buses per hour during peak hours
at the bus stops next to the MRT stations - in one direction.
This means there has to be around 78.833 bus services, if bus
services operate at ten minutes frequency during peak hours.
Clearly, this is impossible.
Let us assume we use the bus stops at Clementi MRT Station as a
benchmark, which has nine bus services. If we let one bus stop have
up to nine bus services, this means there has to be eight bus stops
with nine (unique) bus services each.
Well, a feasible way is to ensure that within a planning area
(town), there is a total of 78.833 bus services, so that in the
event of a train service disruption, people who are not on the
trains yet can walk to a bus stop near them and commute on buses
instead.
Meanwhile, people who are on the train can be assured of a bus to
take at the bus stops next to the MRT Station.
A planning area has at least around five sub-zones. This means
within each sub-zone, there should be 15.767 bus services.
This means that on average, there should be around 1.5 times more
bus services in a planning area (town).
^ that is, if we standardise the frequency on all bus services at
ten minutes during peak hours.
The more accurate way is to ensure that during peak hours, there is
the capacity for 57,600 people on bus services in a planning area -
or around 11k people in a sub-zone.
In other words, this means there has to be even more buses, even
more rides. Around 100% more buses (bus services).
This also means around 100% more bus depots and 100% more buses on
the roads.
To ensure smooth traffic on the roads even with 100% more buses,
there must be bus lanes on every roads with bus services. For some
roads, it's merely taking away one lane for buses to use
exclusively. For many roads, there is a need to expand roads to
create bus lanes.
Quite a 大工程 (challenge), but it could create short-term jobs for
the construction sector and related industries, and long-term jobs
in the bus services industry. :)
Meanwhile, this also means that train fares have to increase by
around 100%, to ensure that the amount of revenue collected remains
the same.
Already, if we want to collect enough revenue to recover costs,
train fares must increase by a few times.
If we increase the capacity on bus services to match the
capacity of train services, this may reduce demand (loading) for
train services, and we have to increase train fares by a few times
more.
Currently, a train ride costs around $1.50. In a day, each
person take around two train rides. This means on average, each
person pays around $3 on train rides.
If we increase train fares by a few times, this means we have to
pay around $9-$15 a day (or $252-$366 a month) on train rides.
Most Singaporeans earn at least $1500 a month. I am not sure if
everyone is willing to spend up to around 25% of their income on
train rides.