let's see more BS from Raymond Lim's speech today...
ERP is Necessary
14. But a good public transport system in itself will not ensure
that our roads are free-flowing. There will always be people who
choose to drive because of individual circumstances or personal
preference. Without an effective traffic management system, our
roads will still be congested. For example, Tokyo has a first class
public transport system but the expressways are still very
congested and it takes on average two hours to drive into the city
during the morning peak hours. Similarly, Seoul has a good public
transport system but it suffers terrible traffic jams during the
rush hours. Singapore must avoid this outcome.
15. If road usage is not priced, our roads will be overused,
resulting in congestion. As you know from your own experience, when
anything that is desirable and limited in supply is given free of
charge, demand will exceed supply. If FA Cup final tickets were
free, the number of people who want them will be greater than the
seats available. If you do not control entry, there will be people
who may well be crowding onto the pitch itself, ruining the event
for everyone.
16. Similarly, many people want to use expressways such as the CTE
during the peak periods, but roads have a fixed capacity. When the
road is free, people will continue to use the road until traffic
during peak hours slows to a crawl.
17. This is why, in addition to the various measures that we
pursue, such as road building and a better public transport system,
we also need ERP or congestion charging. Of all the different
measures to deal with congestion, ERP is the only one that deals
directly with the problem by requiring individuals to take into
account the costs of congestion caused by their driving to
others.
18. Many more cities are coming to the same conclusion after trying
different approaches. I met Jay Walder, who used to be a Managing
Director of Transport for London last year. He told me that 30
years ago, London and Singapore took different approaches to
dealing with congestion in the city. While, Singapore went for
congestion charging by introducing the Area Licensing Scheme (ALS)
in the Central Business District (CBD), London decided to build
more roads such as the M25 ring road around the city. He said that
the M25 did not resolve Londons congestion problem. On the
contrary, by encouraging people to drive more, it created more
congestion and London ended up with a giant car park for a ring
road. London eventually decided to go the way of Singapore by
introducing congestion charging in 2003. They started with £5
(S$15) and later raised it to £8 (S$24) per day per vehicle much
higher than our ERP charges. Congestion in central London dropped
by some 30%. London's experience shows that even though it seems
that the obvious solution to traffic congestion is to simply
increase road capacity, this is not a sustainable solution as
traffic will expand to fill up the additional road space.
19. Other European cities are closely studying Singapores and
Londons example. Stockholm has just introduced congestion
charging, after a successful trial last year. In the United States,
New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg is proposing a US$8 (S$12) toll to
deal with congestion in New York City.
20. Our ERP system has been effective in keeping our roads and
expressways smooth-flowing, above 45 kph for expressways and above
20 kph on arterial roads. ERP helps to manage congestion by
encouraging motorists to change their period of travel, mode of
travel or use a different route. Had it not been for ERP, we would
be facing traffic gridlock on numerous roads. Take the case of the
ECP. Before ERP was introduced in 1998, the travel speed was as low
as 36 kph between 8.30 am to 9 am. Today, the average speed is
above 55 kph during that half hour. Similarly for Orchard Road,
average travel speeds on weekday evenings and on Saturday
afternoons have improved from about 17 kph to 23 kph since ERP was
implemented in October 2005.
21. Furthermore, with the introduction of ERP in 1998, the
Government has been able to rely more on car usage charges and less
on car ownership taxes to manage traffic demand. Vehicle ownership
taxes have been reduced and as a result, annual vehicle ownership
revenue fell from $3.4 billion in 1997 to $1.7 billion in 2006
compared to about $90 million in annual ERP revenue collected
during that period. ERP has thus proven to be a more effective
approach to managing traffic demand, and it costs motorists much
less overall. Indeed, ERP is meant to be a congestion and not a
revenue measure, so if motorists drive less and the roads are
smooth-flowing, the Government will be happy to collect less. In
effect, ERP rates can be adjusted down, as much as up, depending on
the traffic speed on the roads.
22. With the use of ERP to manage traffic, this has also made it
possible for more Singaporeans to own cars. Our vehicle population
has grown from 680,000 in 1998 to 800,000 in 2006. However, to
accommodate more vehicles on our roads, we have had to expand the
ERP system from time to time. ERP started in 1998 on the ECP, CTE,
PIE and around the CBD. It was then expanded to the AYE, and the
arterial roads to relieve congestion at the Outer Cordon in 1999.
It was subsequently extended to Dunearn Road in 2002, and more
recently in 2005 to the northbound CTE in the evening and to
Orchard Road on Saturdays.
23. To keep ERP effective, we need to continually adjust our ERP
coverage. The traffic situation is always dynamic; changes in
income levels, vehicle population and drivers travel patterns all
affect traffic demand.
24. In this regard, over the last two years, traffic levels have
been gradually but noticeably building up. More roads are
congested, especially during peak hours, including in the evenings.
The LTA has reviewed the situation, and decided to build a few more
ERP gantries and extend the ERP hours on the CTE. LTA will be
announcing the details of its review later. Overall, these changes
will help to improve traffic conditions on our roads.
Ensuring ERPs Effectiveness
25. Now, we sometimes hear criticisms of the ERP system. Some have
observed that introducing or raising ERP charges relieve congestion
temporarily, but after a while, the congestion comes back. Others,
especially those using the CTE, have complained that the ERP is
unfair. They say that depending on where you join the expressway,
some motorists add to the congestion without paying for it. This is
feedback that we value. It shows that ERP coverage may need to be
more extensive or pricing better fine-tuned. This is why we need to
review the coverage of ERP on our roads regularly.
26. In the longer term, the LTA is looking at how to upgrade ERP
technology to put in place a more effective system of
congestion-charging. One possibility is to use GPS technology. We
are working on this, but it is probably still a few years away as
the technology is not quite ready.
27. Looking ahead, we can expect traffic on our roads to get
heavier, particularly the roads leading into and out of the city.
Today, ERP is introduced principally on a point by point basis. LTA
is studying how we can deal with peak hour congestion more
holistically and effectively, taking into account overall traffic
conditions, for example in the CBD. LTA is also reviewing the
optimal speed ranges on our roads and the response of motorists to
the present structure of our congestion charges.
28. Our vehicle growth rate will also have to be reviewed. We must
remember that the current 3% growth rate cap is on an ever
increasing base. In 1990, when the 3% cap was introduced, it
amounted to 16,000 additional vehicles a year. Today 3% amounts to
24,000 additional vehicles every year. Against this is the fact
that road growth was only 1% per year in the last 15 years, going
down to about 0.5% over the next 15 years.
29. As long as we want more cars on the roads, ERP coverage will
invariably get more extensive and charges higher over time. This is
a key trade off that we have to make if we want both car growth and
smooth flowing roads. The Government is thus looking at what the
appropriate balance should be in the future, between vehicle growth
rates, usage charges and ownership taxes.
30. These measures will be part of the current comprehensive review
of our land transport policies. We will need to make significant
changes in order to keep our roads free flowing, our trains and
buses efficient and convenient, and our city liveable and both
people- and business-friendly. We are studying these measures
carefully and will announce them early next year after the
completion of the review.
Conclusion
31. Our aim is to have a sustainable transport system that supports
continued population and economic growth and the higher
expectations that come with being a first-world city.
32. Building a better public transport system is a critical part of
this. Refining the ERP system in tandem with other measures such as
road building and controlling vehicle population growth are equally
important. Together, these measures ensure that we have a quality
urban living environment - a city in a garden and not, as in many
cities of the world, a city in a car park.
http://app-pac.mica.gov.sg/data/vddp/embargo/10676575.htm
