Originally posted by suntze:
So I do not sense that the Taiwanese people appreciate the
international strategic environment, how preoccupied the US is with
Iraq and the war on terror, and how interdependent the US and China
are becoming. Many do not realise how rapidly China is transforming
itself, and how major powers in the world are all repositioning
themselves in response to a rising China.
Many Taiwanese believe China will not use force on Taiwan, even if
it moves towards independence. They are wrong. When I visited China
in May, my sense was that the cross-strait issue was at the top of
their agenda and that China is absolutely serious. To China, the
2008 Olympics is a small matter. But preventing Taiwanese
independence is crucial to China.
The Taiwanese press speculated that I had visited Taiwan to play a
mediator's role between China and Taiwan. It showed they had not
understood the situation. I am in no position to play any such role
and have no desire to do so. The issue between China and Taiwan is
not a misunderstanding that can be resolved by the good offices of
an intermediary. It is a fundamental and deep contradiction which
will require great skill and restraint on both sides to
manage.
There is therefore a real risk of miscalculation and mishap. [b]If
a war breaks out across the strait, we will be forced to choose
between the two sides. As a friend of both sides, any decision will
be painful. But if the conflict is provoked by Taiwan, then
Singapore cannot support Taiwan.[quote]
Notice he said "Singapore cannot support Taiwan"; he didn't say
Spore will support PRC.[/b]
And he said if the conflict is provoked by Taiwan, meaning if
Taiwan fired the first shot, which of course she will never do
so.The one who will fire the first shot is the PRC, as shown by
their heightened urgency to reunite by force.It could change, but
the onus to maintain peace lies with PRC.Taiwan cannot be accused
of starting a war just for exercising freedom of speech and voicing
out her ambitions, this is international law, something that PRC is
still finding her way.
