China vs the United States

last SG · 2004-06-02T00:57:06+00:00

China and US are unlikely to face war if China play with the right card. The only way war will break out is China attack Taiwan. If China dont attack Taiwan,...

bot_in_shop SG

Hey guys, I just read the Straits Times commentary 'Managing Taiwan key to avoiding war' and I was wondering in the event of a war between China and the United States, which country would you people out there support? If so, why?

Another question that I am wondering is would such a war take on a regional nature? My personal guess is yes it would, as the United States would be launching their attacks from their bases in Japan and South Korea, while the Chinese would be trying to knock out those bases. What do you guys think?

zenden9 SG

Neutral

LazerLordz SG

A better question will be, if the US use our logistics facilities as a forward staging post, what would be our stand/Do we support unflinchingly, or unwillingly but knowing we are already in a situation where the decision is out of our hands, prepare for any retaliatory strikes by the Chinese.Sounds unlikely, but eveything’s possible in war…Quite a sobering thought for this balmy night.

bot_in_shop SG

Agreed. On further expansion of my initial question, I would like to ask, should Singapore go with the United States, in opening up our logistics facility, such as Changi naval base for their fleet to replenish before entering the theatre of war or do we sit out the entire thing, prohibiting the US from even using our bases, leaving the two powers to duke it out while we sit on the fence. Do we even want to get involved in what is probably going to be the biggest war that the world has even seen since the days of World War 2?

In the case of Iraq, it is possible for the Singapore government to support the United States, even after it became apparent that the premise that the US premise for an invasion of Iraq was faulty in the very first place due to the distant nature of Iraq. However, if the war is to break out in East Asia, every single Southeast Asian country would find itself propelled willingly or unwillingly into taking sides, which would have distinct repurcussions that will have a definite impact on the balance of power within the region, no matter who is the victor.

Not to say that a war between the US and China is inevitable but going by the trend, with the added aggravation of Taiwanese move to change the constitution and the changing nature of the PRC's armed forces, I would say that we are standing ever closer to the brink of war, especially with key issues and stands unresolved by both major powers.

loudmonkey SG

I read the article this morning.

So long as the US has the Taiwan Relations Act, they are legally obliged to keep supplying Taiwan with advanced weapons. I think the Act has lost its meaning and relevance today. The US can make money out of the arms sales certainly, but I think a war will be more expensive.

If the US ever asks SG to use its base here to aid Taiwan, i think SG will be put in a difficult position. Better to stay neutral in this case.

It soulds almost like a game, doesnt it???? A game of politics and war.

LazerLordz SG

This would indeed be a wake-up call to those who think we are very safe and unlikely to be troubled by any untoward happenings in the region.When the South China Sea erupts, every littoral state will be dragged into it, whether they want to or not.The eventual vicotrs will be those who manage to traverse these treacherous seas(no pun intended) with care.

zenden9 SG

I think we do not worry abt the taiwan strait crisis even war break out.US is unlikely to support Taiwan if PRC invade Taiwan with US arm tie up by Iraq and terrorist plus the trade balance between US and PRC is more balance.US need to have a stable economic with China.War with US will happen if each side invade either one motherland. Just like Cold war situation,US and USSR never start war with each other although war seems likely.

Shotgun SG

Hahah, nevermind… we got a nice Thai and Malaysian Cushion… so land attacks against us would be limited. Its their missiles I’m worried about.

Langley SG

In ASEAN, Malaysia and Indonesia are historically very wary of China and view it as a long-term threat. The Philippines is the most recent addition after the Chinese grabbed Mischief Reef in 1995. And of course, there are the Vietnamese. The only state within ASEAN to have actually fought 1 war (1979) and several conflicts with China. Only Thailand, Myanmar and perhaps Laos are on rather good terms with China. But Thailand is an alliance partner of the US. Together with Singapore and the Philippines. Hence, I would say the probability of ASEAN siding with the US rather than China is higher. The US is viewed as a benign hegemon but China could become an aggressive power. If its allowed to set a precedent for altering the status quo by force, its next target after Taiwan could be the South China Sea dispute which involves ASEAN. Also, a victory for China in Taiwan is likely to disupt the balance of power in the Asia Pacific. And it is the common doctrine of all ASEAN countries to keep the US involved in the region to check the rise of China. As such, if the US decides to intervene and rallies ASEAN to join in, it is quite likely that we would. However, if we decide to support the US, we would have to face the wrath of China, which likes to fight wars for 'face'. The 1979 war with Vietnam was fought beause the Viets turned against the Chinese by supporting the Soviet Union. On the whole, this is gonna be a difficult scenairo. No clear direction is visible.

Now, the US factor. Like what bot_in_shop said, this is gonna be the biggest thing since WWII. The US has to DO something. Reasons:

1. Invading Iraq is one thing. Lots of Americans were pretty pissed about that. But here, communist China the big bully is gonna crush little democratic Taiwan! Basically, a second and much more massive Tiananmen. This is something the US public and elite has traditionally not tolerated due to their deeply-held democratic values. Think the Berlin Airlift (1949), Kuwait (1990) and the strong sentiments generated by Tiananmen.

2. Democratic ideals aside. Realpolitik demands that the US manages China's rise to power. Now, I'm not a big sucker for the Bush Doctrine of preemption. But as a Kissingerian realist, I know that these sorta provocations by China need to be answered in the spirit of containment like the Korean and Vietnam wars.

Now, with so many people on the left (bleeding heart Democratic liberals) and on the right (both the traditional and neo-conservatives) with a stake in any Chinese confrontation with Taiwan, the US HAS to do something. And what else can the Americans do besides using force since the Chinese will not compromise? The US can win against China. The US military has demonstrated in Iraq that it may sux at counter-insurgency warfare but in more conventional conflicts with modern standing armies, its superiority is undisputed. Furthermore, the PLA cannot seriously challenge the US military now. Its only military edge now is in the surface to surface missiles. Navy and airforce still in the process of upgrading. An amphibious landing is terribly complicated and most prob wouldn't succeed. As discussed in previous threads, perhaps the Chinese can only try a massive airborne operation. China likes to talk big. But can it win militarily? That's another question.

With Iraq now, further military deployments may be questionable but I say, the US is a tough country capable of sacrifice if they feel the cause is just. Let not China underestimate the US. The war can also be won coz the US military is precisely geared to fight like this. And if Bush can win in Taiwan, he would not have to worry about reelection liao. What Mr Cowboy needs now is a miracle to save his presidency, Taiwan may just be it.

the.raven SG

the US damn kaypo, wanna meddle in CHina’s affairs because they can gain from it, but last time during things like world war 1 they just sat back and earned profit and never helped. damn yanks. if they fight with China they will get owned.

nismoS132 SG

will taiwan come to us for help?

arburthen? SG

I think the key to stability in the region is singapore. The key to instability in the region is also singapore.

During WWII after the japanese trounced the americans at pearl harbour, literally overnight they became a mighty world naval power but when they turned to take SEA and finally singapore they choose a land route instead. Anybody ever think why they didn't choose a sea approach instead?

The answer lies in the shallow waters and large numbers of atolls and islands around the region. If you think about it this whole place is like a big impregnable mountain range fortress with few roads and dozens of places for ambushes, indeed in such a place for bigger ships like destroyers and aircraft carriers they will be hard pressed to even manoevour in shallow waters let alone try to fight battles here. As examplified by the recent accident between a car carrying ship and an oil tanker around singapore waters.

But once in you can control the whole region. We are like the center of gravity here, whoever controls the surrounding waters of singapore by virtue controls the traffic and lifelines of half a dozen countries in the region.

That's why the british were confident of a fight if the japanese ever came from the sea likewise they were surprised and ran away when the japanese took the longer route and came from behind to take singapore despite having a large unopposed naval force.

For this topic If americans controlled singapore, she could bring china to it's knees and any other country which opposed her will by simply asking all her oil and raw material shipping to turn around and go back to where they came from.

If the china controlled waters of singapore. she could strangle the life out of taiwan and japan.

So what's to stop bigger regional powers in this modern age from snatching singapore? The truth?

Well I think it's because singapore is a well policed place, there's no mafia, yakuza & little opposition here to create trouble and the government takes controls in the daily life of people here, hence internal strife is completely ruled out but not external. If internal strife is ruled out, then there is little chance "rice bowls" of other countries will be disturbed.

For external strife we need a strong deterrant force enough to protect our waters and territory but not enough to be a threat to bigger regional powers. Hence today we(singapore and malaysia) are still masters of our own destinies ... until it changes.

That's why contary to many singaporeans I'm not afraid if the malaysians turned off the water tap, because that will trigger a military response from us which will make many many people come here to turn it back on for us. But once here they may not want to leave. We may loose our territorial soverignity but so will malaysia.

Just think if malaysia and indonesia are against permanent US base either in singapore or thailand. Would malaysia and indonesia be receptive to a delegation of warships from 6-7 different nations on permanent stay instead?

ferret69 SG

On a slightly related note (by a mile), does anyone know what China's nuclear weapons doctrine is (when and how will China use them)? How credible is it as a deterrent?

Also, do you think China will, within the next 5 decades, go down the route of the militarisation of space? Now THAT is a scary thought.

Langley SG

Not sure about China's nuclear doctrine. But I think standard strategic doctrine calls for nuclear weapon usage if certain 'red lines' are crossed. Since usage of nukes will definitely expose the country to a retailatory strike, they can only be used in situations when national survival is threatened. I think NATO's doctrine is that once they're unable to stop a Soviet conventional invasion of Western Europe, they'll use their nukes.

Here, I doubt whether Taiwan is vital enough to warrant the use of nukes. So even if the US and China engages in a war, it would most likely be a conventional war as long as both sides play it cool and refrain from, or show restrain, in attacking each other's home territory. As long as the war is a limited war meaning the national survival of each country is not threatened, and that their leaders are rational, nukes are not likely to be used. However, the Chinese are so emotional over Taiwan that it may cloud their heads. And in any conflict, there is the risk of unstoppable escalation. So I would still be pretty scared if China and the US does engage in a war over Taiwan.

Langley SG

Agree with arburthen. However it is not just Singapore. It is the whole SEA region. The geopolitics of East Asia is linked to that of SEA. East Asia on the whole is energy deficient and depends heavily on Gulf oil which needs to be shipped through SEA. SEA itself also sells oil to China e.g. Indonesia. This is why Japan invaded SEA in WWII. Now, East Asia also has manufactured exports passing through SEA. So in the event of a war between US and China, I think we could be heavily courted by both sides. If the US succeeds in stopping the flow of oil to China, think the Chinese gone liao. And if the Chinese tries to be funny with SEA, Japan and S.Korea would definitely pressure the US to step in. The world will not let SEA fall b'coz its quite an important region.

the.raven SG

why is that scary? Confused china is not gonna build a death star Laughing

|-|05| SG

The another question that has to be asked is what will Russia do?Will she sit back and watch China a potential enemy get stronger or risk it all by fight againest them?Honestly the Chinese do not have many friends in this reigon especially when they have been pushing everyone around to claim territory that WAS theirs many years ago but have since been lost.Vietnam,Philipines,Malaysia even and Japan and South Korea.
On the flip side at this time however i do not think the US can risk fighting yet another war.....imagine Chinese terrorist added to the already pack group of terrorist wanting to take out the US!

LazerLordz SG

China stands at the threshold of a gleaming future as a benign and friendly giant or a militaristic bully.She has the technology capable of ensuring peace or war for all in the East Asian region.Only time will tell if the leadership that steps up is worthy of their legacy and whether their society will mature into a stage where the people realise that they are not owed the living, but they have to be responsible and smart members of the international community.
Somehow with all the saber-rattling that is going on, I fear that China may go down the slippery path to antagonistic politics.On a footnote though, I would say that Singapore may seem insignificant now, but as the hub of the South East Asian region and the pivot point of all trade that flows from the Indian Ocean to China, she seems pretty well-placed to possess a strategic impact on the future of this region for years to come.Optimistic and moderately hubris this outlook might be, but it is true that our armed forces, especially our strategic forces have a part to play in this issue.

Xicq SG

Just my 2 cents...

I would agree with china taking back taiwan.the chinese likes to learn from history,they dun always tend to repeat the same mistakes.I believe taiwan should think abt return to china as the 'one china' policy.mainly to avoid a conflict tat could result in a lot of civilians casuaties.

US would never risk a waging a war with china if china is forced to take military options against taiwan,for china didnt drop a nuke on US territory,politics wise,i should say if a war really waged out btwn taiwan n china,US might rather get the support of the UN b4 deciding wat to do,mostly will result in negotiations with china.

For even for a superpower country like US,they might win if they fought with china but they will surely suffer a significant damage as well,americans doesnt like a lose-lose proposal,they tens to prefer the win-win type.

SingaporeMacross SG

but taiwan is democratic and china is communist! do you think the taiwanese people will so willingly let themselves be enslaved by the communist machine?